Americans Are Moving Differently — And It’s About to Reshape Commercial Real Estate
For generations, Americans packed up and moved in pursuit of economic opportunity. Today, that trend has shifted dramatically, according to a new migration report from United Van Lines. Instead of flocking to bustling urban centers, people are increasingly choosing smaller markets—places where homes cost less, commutes are shorter, and overall quality of life feels more manageable.
This emerging trend is creating a ripple effect that commercial real estate investors can’t afford to ignore. With states like Oregon, the Carolinas, and much of the South drawing in new residents, the markets investors once assumed would boom indefinitely are starting to evolve in surprising ways.
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This article is based on reporting from CNBC’s Property Play newsletter by Diana Olick. For deeper investor insights, subscribe directly through CNBC for weekly updates.
Why Americans Are Moving — And What Comes Next
United Van Lines’ annual study revealed a major shift: affordability and family proximity now rank higher than career opportunity for many movers. With six of the top ten inbound states located in the South or South Atlantic, the report paints a clear picture of a population seeking a slower and more grounded lifestyle.
Meanwhile, younger generations—including millennials and Gen Z—are finding refuge just outside major metros. New Jersey, for example, has become a go‑to for young professionals priced out of New York City. At the same time, retirees are steadily leaving the state, making it the top outbound location in the U.S.
According to Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO, these shifting motivations have major implications for commercial real estate: “The need for more affordable housing, more modest office parks and more middle‑ to lower‑income retail spaces are better bets for investors.” Even industrial properties like self‑storage are quietly rising in demand as smaller, more affordable homes become the norm.
The Southern Surge — And Its Surprising Reversal
The pandemic years ignited a mass migration to the South. Investors piled in. Developers built aggressively. Rent growth forecasts soared.
But many of those expectations have cooled.
“They were expecting 6% to 8% rent growth for years,” said Manus Clancy of Lightbox. “Now rents are falling as new inventory comes online—2024 had the highest build volume in 50 years.” Some newcomers to Arizona, Nevada, and Florida have even begun moving out, leaving behind developers who overestimated long‑term demand.
As Severino notes, investors assumed these migration patterns would accelerate indefinitely. But with household formation slowing and population growth decelerating, the opposite appears to be true.
Investor Tip Box
Discount-focused retail, affordable multifamily housing, and well‑located industrial support spaces (like self‑storage) are emerging as the strongest long‑term plays.
What This Means for Today’s Real Estate Professionals
Commercial real estate is no longer riding the momentum of predictable population growth. Investors must be strategic, selective, and—more than ever—educated about emerging market patterns.
This is also where professional development becomes invaluable. Whether you’re entering the real estate field or expanding your investment credentials, understanding market migration and demographic shifts is essential. Cameron Academy continues to equip professionals across real estate, mortgage, insurance, and other licensed industries with up‑to‑date, market‑relevant knowledge so they can stay ahead of these changing trends.
Looking Ahead
The South isn’t slowing down entirely, but the days of assuming endless migration and easy rent spikes are over. As Americans’ priorities shift, the commercial properties that thrive will be those aligned with affordability, accessibility, and sustainable lifestyle choices.
For investors, developers, and real estate professionals, the message is clear: the next decade won’t reward broad assumptions—it will reward strategic precision.
