Auction.com has unveiled its 2025 Distressed Market Outlook, projecting a potential 8% decrease in foreclosure auction volume for the upcoming year. This baseline scenario is complemented by two alternative forecasts which could see an increase in auction volumes based on differing economic conditions.
Jason Allnutt, CEO at Auction.com, highlighted the importance of their platform, stating, “The Auction.com marketplace provides rich, real-time data on supply, demand, and pricing for distressed properties sold at auction nationwide.” This data is crucial for forecasting trends in the retail housing market.
The report indicates that foreclosure auction volumes are set to hit a three-year low in 2024. This decline is attributed to increased market headwinds, such as rising retail inventory and persistently high mortgage rates, which have impacted local community developers.
Auction buyers have shown a decreased willingness to pay prices relative to the after-repair value of properties towards the end of 2024. However, signs of recovery were evident in November and December, as price demands began to climb.
Foreclosure Auction Supply
Completed foreclosure auction volume in Q4 of 2024 decreased by 3% from Q3 and was down 11% from the previous year, reaching its lowest since Q3 of 2021. Auction.com data, which represents nearly half of all completed foreclosure auctions nationwide, shows a 42% decrease from Q1 2020 levels.
REO Auction Supply
Bank-owned (REO) auction volume in Q4 of 2024 saw a 3% increase from Q3 and remained stable compared to the previous year. This volume is at 39% of Q1 2020 levels, marking a slight increase from earlier quarters.
Distressed Market Waterfall
The volume of distressed loans upstream from completed foreclosure auctions shifted in Q3 of 2024, with seriously delinquent mortgages rising by 10% from the previous quarter. Despite this, foreclosure inventory remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
Ali Haralson, President of Auction.com, noted, “While the number of distressed homeowners has returned to pre-pandemic levels, many are avoiding foreclosure thanks to ample home equity that allows them to sell through a pre-foreclosure sale.”
2025 Foreclosure Outlook
Daren Blomquist, VP of Market Economics at Auction.com, stated, “Emerging risks in the economy and housing market are pushing delinquencies higher, but those higher delinquencies will not likely translate into higher foreclosure auction volume until at least early 2026.”
The report uses a regression-based model with home price appreciation and unemployment rates as primary inputs. It predicts a baseline 8% decrease in foreclosure auction volume for 2025. However, changes in these economic indicators could lead to varying outcomes.
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