Commercial Real Estate Deal Growth Stalls: What Slowing Momentum Means for 2026
Commercial real estate investors hit the brakes this October, marking the first year‑over‑year decline in deal volume since early 2024. After nearly two years of strong momentum, the market’s sudden hesitation has thrown a spotlight on widening pricing gaps, elevated financing costs, and the ongoing standoff between CRE buyers and sellers.
According to Mortgage Professional America, the slowdown doesn’t signal a collapse—rather, it underscores how far pricing expectations have drifted apart in today’s high‑rate environment. Kevin Fagan, head of CRE capital market research at Moody’s, described October’s numbers as a sign of an extended stalemate rather than an impending downturn.
Deal Volume Still Active, but Momentum Slows
Despite the cooling pace, October still delivered $24.4 billion in U.S. CRE sales—roughly 70% of the volume seen in October 2019. Total 2025 deal activity remains above 2024 levels. But as Moody’s data shared with CNBC reveals, the rapid growth seen in late 2024 and early 2025 has lost steam.
Multifamily took the sharpest hit, with a steep 27% drop in October deal volume. Yet, many multifamily assets still trade at premiums—showing that while demand is strong, pricing has become more tangled and competitive.
Hospitality Surges as Conversions Reshape the Market
The hospitality sector emerged as the only segment with a year‑over‑year increase, rising approximately 6%. A standout transaction was the sale of the New York Edition hotel from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to Kam Sang Company for $231.2 million.
Kevin Fagan highlights a broader trend: struggling office buildings transforming into valuable hotel or residential conversions. Iconic projects such as the Woolworth Building illustrate how adaptive reuse continues to redefine the CRE landscape.
Meanwhile, value‑seeking buyers made headlines when New York Life acquired a Manhattan office tower for nearly half its 2015 valuation. Institutional investors are circling distressed but well‑located assets—hinting that prime office space still offers long‑term promise.
Commercial Mortgages: A Volatile but Active Landscape
The third quarter of 2025 brought a powerful resurgence in mortgage originations. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, commercial and multifamily lending jumped 36% year‑over‑year.
Even more surprising: office lending surged 181%. Despite the sector’s challenges, lenders are selectively backing properties with conversion potential or those supported by medical and life‑science tenants—two fields rapidly absorbing obsolete office inventory.
What This Means for 2026
This slowdown suggests 2026 will be shaped not only by fundamentals like rent growth and occupancy, but by how quickly market participants recalibrate expectations in a higher‑cost environment.
For commercial originators, investors, brokers, and analysts, this means strengthening market literacy—particularly around evolving debt markets, valuation resets, and underwriting shifts. And professionals entering or upskilling in real estate, mortgage, or finance will need sharper insights and stronger training than ever.
This is where institutions like Cameron Academy play a crucial role. With licensing education, continuing education, and professional development across real estate, mortgage, insurance, and financial services, Cameron Academy helps future‑focused professionals stay competitive, confident, and opportunity‑ready.
As the market transitions into its next cycle, knowledge isn’t just power—it’s deal flow, resilience, and long‑term career growth.
More Articles
Getting licensed or staying ahead in your career can be a journey—but it doesn’t have to be overwhelming. Grab your favorite coffee or tea, take a moment to relax, and browse through our articles. Whether you’re just starting out or renewing your expertise, we’ve got tips, insights, and advice to keep you moving forward. Here’s to your success—one sip and one step at a time!
In the rapidly evolving world of technology, one question often surfaces: Will AI replace real estate agents? Our comprehensive exploration into this topic reveals the intricate interplay between technology and the real estate industry, and how this relationship is shaping the future of property transactions. While some view the rise of AI with apprehension, others see it as a tool for enhancement. Take Cameron Academy, for instance. They've seamlessly integrated AI into their educational platform, offering an AI tutor to assist students. It's an intriguing paradox. On one hand, we have concerns about AI replacing jobs, and on the other, we witness how AI can enrich our learning experiences.
Are you planning to buy a house? Understanding your financial capacity and determining whether you can afford the monthly payments is crucial. This guide explores the various factors that come into play when determining the affordability of a $200,000 house. We break down the key elements that contribute to overall affordability, from income to down payment and mortgage interest rates. By the end of this article, you will have a clear understanding of what it takes to make your dream of homeownership a reality. Discover the benefits of having a real estate license and mortgage license with Cameron Academy's comprehensive courses. Ready to take the next step? Explore our online career education courses and unlock your potential today. Sign up for our real estate license or mortgage license course now!
Considering a career as a real estate agent in Florida? Let's break down the costs involved. The first step is completing the state-required pre-license courses, which can range from $100 to $500. Once you've completed your education, you'll need to submit an application to the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR) with an $83.75 fee. The state exam fee is $36.75 per attempt. All applicants must undergo a fingerprinting check, which ranges from $50 to $80. Other costs include brokerage desk fees, REALTOR® dues, marketing materials, and living expenses during the initial months of building your client base. Despite the upfront costs, the potential rewards make it a worthwhile investment. Ready to start? Enroll in Cameron Academy's Florida pre-licensing course today!
Welcome to our comprehensive guide on real estate farming. This marketing strategy targets a specific neighborhood or area, establishing you as a local expert. One of the most effective ways to engage with potential clients is through handwritten notes, creating a lasting impression and helping you stand out in a competitive market. Handwritten cards build trust, foster relationships, and increase your chances of converting leads into clients. By incorporating these personalized techniques, you can differentiate yourself from the competition and increase your chances of success. Ready to take your real estate farming to the next level? Visit Cameron Academy to learn more about our real estate farming course.
The current state of the U.S. housing market is characterized by high prices and a lack of inventory. However, recent developments in the short-term rental industry, particularly with Airbnb, have sparked discussions about the potential impact on the broader housing market. This article explores the connection between Airbnb's decline and the housing market, analyzing the implications and providing a balanced perspective on the situation. Short-term rentals, such as Airbnb, have played a significant role in the housing market, affecting housing prices and inventory. These platforms have provided homeowners with the opportunity to monetize their properties by renting them out for short periods. This has resulted in increased competition for available housing and, in some cases, contributed to rising home prices.
Starting a career in real estate can be an exciting and rewarding journey. Whether you are just entering the field or looking to strengthen your existing career, there are valuable tips and insights that can help you navigate the competitive landscape of the real estate industry. The real estate industry is a dynamic and ever-evolving field, with countless opportunities for those willing to put in the effort. With dedication and a strategic approach, you can carve out your own niche and thrive in this competitive market. Don't let the challenges and competition intimidate you. With the right mindset, dedication, and a commitment to continuous learning, you can thrive in the world of real estate. Embrace the journey, leverage your strengths, and build meaningful relationships with clients and industry experts. Start your real estate career or take it to the next level today.
