Fed Survey Signals Only Two More Rate Cuts Ahead — Even Under Trump’s Next Fed Chair

In a financial climate full of uncertainty and political change, a new CNBC Fed Survey delivers a remarkably steady prediction: only two more interest rate cuts are expected this year — with none forecasted for 2027.

This outlook stays consistent regardless of who President Donald Trump selects as the next Federal Reserve chair. Even if he chooses someone aligned with his push for extremely low rates, economists overwhelmingly believe the Fed won’t pursue cuts down to the president’s desired 1% range — which would effectively mean negative real rates.

Why Markets Expect Rates to Stay Higher

Economic growth remains too strong for aggressive cuts. Forecasts put GDP at 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year — solidly above the Fed’s typical expectations. Unemployment is projected to hover around 4.5%.

Inflation looks steady as well. CPI is expected to end 2026 at 2.7%, easing slightly to 2.5% the following year — aligning closely with the Fed’s preferred zone.

Meanwhile, recession fears have cooled significantly. Last year, recession odds sat at 53%. Now they’re down to just 23%, thanks to a strong labor market and resilient corporate earnings.

Tariffs: Mostly Behind Us… but Still Dragging

Although Trump’s tariffs continue to spark debate, 58% of surveyed experts believe the worst of the economic hit is already behind us. Still, tariffs are expected to keep inflation about 0.3% higher and pressure profit margins in sectors like retail.

But there’s optimism: AI-driven investment and new tax incentives could give businesses the boost they need. More than two-thirds of respondents expect stronger business investment in 2026 than in 2025.

The Productivity Boom Changing Everything

Economist Allen Sinai describes the current productivity trend as “a 1990s‑like picture,” driven by early-stage AI adoption. Higher productivity is supporting stronger earnings, stable inflation, and a durable labor market.

Risks Still Linger — Especially Political Ones

Survey respondents cite political uncertainty surrounding Trump administration policies as the top risk. Other concerns include:

• Potential AI-driven market bubbles
• Threats to Federal Reserve independence
• High inflation flare-ups
• Renewed tariff waves
• Geopolitical instability

As Diane Swonk of KPMG warns, “Policy uncertainty acts as a tax on the economy. It causes paralysis.”

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair?

Markets currently favor Rick Rieder, but 50% of survey respondents expect Trump to choose former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh instead. Warsh is considered somewhat more dovish than Jerome Powell, yet still likely committed to maintaining Fed independence.

Many economists also believe the Federal Open Market Committee will resist extreme policy pushes from any incoming chair — reinforcing confidence in future stability.

What This Means for Real Estate, Mortgage, and Finance Professionals

A rate environment settling near 3% through 2027 could create a stable foundation for homebuyers, investors, and business owners — particularly in booming states like Florida.

For anyone planning to enter or advance in real estate, mortgage, insurance, or other professional licensed industries, staying educated is critical. Cameron Academy continues to be a trusted leader in Florida and beyond, helping new and seasoned professionals stay licensed, competitive, and informed.

As the economy evolves, your knowledge becomes your greatest advantage.