Rising Costs, Slowing Premiums: Why AM Best Predicts a Tougher 2026 for the P/C Insurance Market

Insurance financial analysis

After a relatively strong 2025 for the property/casualty insurance sector, AM Best is signaling a shift. According to new analysis reported by Insurance Journal, the industry may be facing a more challenging 2026 driven by slowing premium growth, inflationary pressure, and rising claims costs.

Premium Growth Slows as Rates Plateau

The momentum seen in 2025—supported by strong investment income and previous rate hikes—is starting to cool. AM Best’s latest industry report forecasts slowing net premium growth across many lines in 2026. This softening trend is expected to push the industry’s combined ratio up by 1.9 points to 96.9.

From cyber to D&O to commercial property, renewal pricing softened throughout 2025—and the trend appears likely to continue. Even workers’ compensation, traditionally a stable performer, saw its premium growth moderate last year.

Inflation Hits Claims Costs Hard

Jacqalene Lentz, Senior Director at AM Best, notes that rising prices for construction materials, auto parts, and commercial repair costs are pushing loss ratios higher. These macroeconomic pressures are cutting into the cushion insurers regained in 2025.

Even personal lines—which benefited from rate approvals and tech‑driven underwriting improvements—may feel pressure again in 2026. Higher auto fatality rates and increasing repair costs remain persistent challenges.

Commercial Lines Feel the Strain

Commercial lines are projected to reach a combined ratio of 96.3 in 2026—slightly worse than 2025’s 95.8. Auto, medical professional liability, and products liability each recorded combined ratios over 100 in 2025, indicating underwriting losses and ongoing stress.

Reserves: A Persistent Risk

AM Best’s re‑estimation of ultimate reserves revealed a $9 billion deficiency for year‑end 2024. While improved from earlier projections, reserve adequacy remains a major concern—and one of the clearest indicators of long‑term company solvency.

E&S Market Continues to Shine

As admitted carriers tightened underwriting or stepped away from volatile classes such as property and high‑hazard liability, the excess & surplus (E&S) market absorbed the overflow. AM Best calls this shift one of the defining forces of 2025—a trend expected to influence 2026 as well.

What This Means for Insurance Professionals

Whether you’re licensed or exploring a path into the industry, these shifts highlight the importance of staying skilled, informed, and adaptable. A year of flatter rate changes and rising claims severity means professionals will need sharper analysis, stronger risk‑evaluation skills, and a deep understanding of evolving market pressures.

If you’re considering entering or advancing within the insurance field, Cameron Academy provides flexible, career‑focused licensing programs designed to help professionals stay ahead of market changes and elevate their expertise.

To dive deeper into the original reporting, visit the full article on Insurance Journal.

More Articles

Getting licensed or staying ahead in your career can be a journey—but it doesn’t have to be overwhelming. Grab your favorite coffee or tea, take a moment to relax, and browse through our articles. Whether you’re just starting out or renewing your expertise, we’ve got tips, insights, and advice to keep you moving forward. Here’s to your success—one sip and one step at a time!

Mortgage Applications Slip as Mixed Market Signals Create Uncertainty

The latest MBA survey shows overall mortgage applications dipping 1.4% during the holiday week, even as purchase activity rose on a seasonally adjusted basis. Refinances cooled despite lower rates, which averaged 6.32% for a 30‑year fixed. Rising ARMs and shifting buyer behavior highlight a market still trying to stabilize amid softening economic indicators.

Commercial Real Estate Deal Growth Stalls Heading Into 2026

October delivered the first year‑over‑year slowdown in commercial real estate deals in nearly two years, signaling a growing disconnect between buyers and sellers as elevated rates and policy uncertainty reshape pricing expectations. While multifamily cooled and office assets traded at steep discounts, hotels and adaptive‑reuse projects stood out as rare bright spots. For professionals across real estate, mortgage, and finance, the shifting landscape underscores the need for sharper analysis and continued education heading into 2026.

US Workers’ Comp Market Faces Higher Costs and New Regulations Heading Into 2026

The US workers’ compensation market is bracing for a pivotal year in 2026 as medical inflation, rising claim complexity, and tightening state regulations push costs higher for insurers and employers. With cumulative trauma injuries increasing and states expanding presumption laws—especially for first responders and healthcare workers—underwriting strategies are being forced to evolve. At the same time, technology like predictive analytics and workplace wearables is reshaping loss prevention, while more organizations turn to captives and hybrid programs to manage volatility.

How Florida Realtors Quietly Built a Tech Empire That Now Powers North American Real Estate

Over the past 25 years, Florida Realtors has transformed from a simple support desk into one of the most influential tech ecosystems in real estate. Through member‑driven tools like Tech Helpline, Form Simplicity and the new Sabal Sign platform, the association has built a stable, fully integrated system used by agents across the U.S. and Canada. Free from outside investors and focused entirely on member needs, Florida Realtors has quietly become a tech powerhouse—proving that long-term vision, not venture capital, is what truly drives innovation in the industry.

Flood Disclosures Could Reshape Massachusetts Real Estate as Climate Risks Rise

Massachusetts is poised for a major shift in home‑sale transparency as Gov. Maura Healey pushes for mandatory flood disclosures — a change that could impact buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals statewide. With worsening climate conditions and growing flood damage in communities like Winthrop and Salem, the proposal aims to ensure buyers understand a property’s true risk before they commit. The move has wide support from insurers and municipalities, while the real estate industry remains split over its potential impact on the state’s long‑standing “buyer beware” culture.

Florida’s Insurance Market Begins to Stabilize as New Reforms Take Effect

Florida’s long‑troubled property insurance market is finally showing early signs of recovery. Thanks to recent legislative reforms that reduced litigation and attracted new insurers, some homeowners are even seeing their premiums drop. These improvements are boosting consumer confidence and creating new opportunities for real estate, mortgage, and insurance professionals across the state.