U.S. Economy Shows Resilience Amidst Cooling Labor Market

The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate its robustness, as evidenced by a notable GDP growth of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024. This growth, as reported by Freddie Mac, is primarily driven by consumption spending and non-residential investment. However, the labor market is showing signs of softening, with a rise in the unemployment rate and a slight decline in job openings.

Housing Market Struggles Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

In the housing sector, demand remains weak despite a reduction in mortgage rates. June marked a significant low in home sales, a level not seen since 2011. High borrowing costs and affordability issues continue to deter potential homebuyers. The report highlights that refinance volumes have plummeted to levels reminiscent of the mid-1990s, attributed to elevated interest rates.

Anticipated Decline in Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac forecasts a gradual decline in mortgage rates, which could potentially revive homebuyer interest, particularly among first-time buyers. Homeowner equity remains high, leading to opportunities for cash-out refinances. However, substantial activity in this segment is expected only if further rate cuts occur, responding to favorable inflation data.

Optimistic Economic Outlook

The overall outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of moderate economic growth and no imminent recession fears. This is supported by stable inflation projections and anticipated adjustments in Federal Reserve policies.
For more detailed insights, visit the full report at Freddie Mac Research.